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Abstract Analyses of the cosmic 21-cm signal are hampered by astrophysical foregrounds that are far stronger than the signal itself. These foregrounds, typically confined to a wedge-shaped region in Fourier space, often necessitate the removal of a vast majority of modes, thereby degrading the quality of the data anisotropically. To address this challenge, we introduce a novel deep generative model based on stochastic interpolants to reconstruct the 21-cm data lost to wedge filtering. Our method leverages the non-Gaussian nature of the 21-cm signal to effectively map wedge-filtered 3D lightcones to samples from the conditional distribution of wedge-recovered lightcones. We demonstrate how our method is able to restore spatial information effectively, considering both varying cosmological initial conditions and astrophysics. Furthermore, we discuss a number of future avenues where this approach could be applied in analyses of the 21-cm signal, potentially offering new opportunities to improve our understanding of the Universe during the epochs of cosmic dawn and reionization. 

ABSTRACT New JWST observations are revealing the first galaxies to be prolific producers of ionizing photons, which we argue gives rise to a tension between different probes of reionization. Over the last two decades, a consensus has emerged where star-forming galaxies are able to generate enough photons to drive reionization, given reasonable values for their number densities, ionizing efficiencies $$\xi _{\rm ion}$$ (per unit ultraviolet luminosity), and escape fractions $$f_{\rm esc}$$. However, some new JWST observations infer high values of $$\xi _{\rm ion}$$ during reionization and an enhanced abundance of earlier ($$z\gtrsim 9$$) galaxies, dramatically increasing the number of ionizing photons produced at high z. Simultaneously, recent low-z studies predict significant escape fractions for faint reionization-era galaxies. Put together, we show that the galaxies we have directly observed ($$M_{\rm UV} < -15$$) not only can drive reionization, but would end it too early. That is, our current galaxy observations, taken at face value, imply an excess of ionizing photons and thus a process of reionization in tension with the cosmic microwave background and Lyman-$$\alpha$$ forest. Considering galaxies down to $$M_{\rm UV}\approx -11$$, below current observational limits, only worsens this tension. We discuss possible avenues to resolve this photon budget crisis, including systematics in either theory or observations. 

ABSTRACT The high-redshift galaxy UV luminosity function (UVLF) has become essential for understanding the formation and evolution of the first galaxies. Yet, UVLFs only measure galaxy abundances, giving rise to a degeneracy between the mean galaxy luminosity and its stochasticity. Here, we show that upcoming clustering measurements with the JWST, as well as with Roman, will be able to break this degeneracy, even at redshifts z ≳ 10. First, we demonstrate that current Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC) measurements of the galaxy bias at z ∼ 4–6 point to a relatively tight halo-galaxy connection, with low stochasticity. Then, we show that the larger UVLFs observed by JWST at z ≳ 10 can be explained with either a boosted average UV emission or an enhanced stochasticity. These two models, however, predict different galaxy biases, which are potentially distinguishable in JWST and Roman surveys. Galaxy-clustering measurements, therefore, will provide crucial insights into the connection between the first galaxies and their dark-matter haloes, and identify the root cause of the enhanced abundance of z ≳ 10 galaxies revealed with JWST during its first year of operations.